October2022 Monthly Article-美国国债收益率上涨对于世界几个大国汇率的影响

The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the exchange rates of some of the world's largest countries

美国国债收益率上涨

 对于世界几个大国汇率的影响

简介

Intro

Economic factors, specifically domestic investment, GDP growth, international trade, capital flows, etc. For example, the impact of investment demand on my country's exchange rate is mainly reflected in the overall situation of my country's economy and its attractiveness to foreign capital. The growth of GDP will inevitably lead to an increase in the demand for the local currency, which will cause the exchange rate of the local currency to rise.

Monetary factors are money supply, control policies, capital flows, foreign exchange reserves, etc.

经济因素，特别是国内投资、国内生产总值增长、国际贸易、资本流动等。例如，投资需求对我国汇率的影响，主要体现在我国经济的整体状况和对外资的吸引力上。GDP的增长必然会导致对当地货币的需求增加，这将导致当地货币的汇率上升。货币因素包括货币供应量、调控政策、资本流动、外汇储备等。

International factors, specifically the trend of the US dollar and some international emergencies. It is no wonder that the trend of the US dollar is affected by the Fed's statement (the Fed's monetary policy, interest rate hikes, officials' hawk-to-dove speech, etc.) and the US domestic economic situation (mainly reflected in the form of economic data: non-agricultural employment data, CPI, PPI, etc.) two aspects.

国际因素，特别是美元走势和一些国际突发事件。难怪美元走势受到美联储声明(美联储货币政策、加息、官员鹰派转鸽言论等)和美国国内经济形势(主要体现在经济数据的形式:非农就业数据、CPI、PPI等)两个方面的影响。

Changes in the international and domestic political situation have a great impact on the exchange rate. If the situation is stable, the exchange rate will be stable; if the situation is turbulent, the exchange rate will fall. Aspects that require attention include international relations, partisan struggles, key government officials, unrest, riots, and more. Generally speaking, international related events usually first cause the appreciation and depreciation of the local currency, which is transmitted to the appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar exchange rate, and finally affects the exchange rate.

国际国内政治形势的变化对汇率有很大的影响。如果形势稳定，汇率就会稳定;如果形势动荡，汇率就会下降。需要关注的方面包括国际关系、党派斗争、关键政府官员、动乱、暴动等。一般来说，国际相关事件通常先引起本国货币的升值和贬值，再传导到美元汇率的升值和贬值，最终影响汇率。

Four transaction factors. The psychological expectations of foreign exchange market participants have a serious impact on the direction of the exchange rate. For the appreciation or depreciation of a certain currency, the market often forms its own views. Under the circumstance that a certain consensus is reached, the exchange rate will change within a certain period of time. At this time, the exchange rate may rise and fall completely out of the fundamentals or the central bank may Situations in which the intervention is ineffective.

四个事务的因素。外汇市场参与者的心理预期严重影响着汇率的走向。对于某种货币的升值或贬值，市场往往会形成自己的看法。在达成一定共识的情况下，汇率会在一定时间内发生变化。在这个时候，汇率可能会出现完全脱离基本面的涨跌，或者央行可能会出现干预无效的情况。

英国

UK

The international organization warned the UK of slow economic growth next year at a time when high domestic inflation in the UK is impacting on several social and political levels. On October 11, rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and concerns about volatility in the U.K. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Andrew Bailey) warned on the 11th that pension managers to complete the rebalancing of their positions this week. As the British 30-year bond yields jumped upward more than 30 basis points earlier this week, which means the Bank of England is under greater pressure to launch a bolder plan, or risk the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar to parity. UBS said on the 11th that while the Bank of England's injection of liquidity into the bond market has brought U.K. Treasury yields back down from their initial highs, the relatively small scale of bond purchases looks to be hurting related progress.

国际组织警告英国明年经济增长缓慢，而此时英国国内的高通胀率正对多个社会和政治层面产生影响。10月11日，在美国10年期国债收益率上升和对英国经济波动的担忧下，英国央行行长Andrew Bailey警告，养老金管理人员要在本周完成仓位再平衡工作。由于本周早些时候英国30年期国债收益率向上跳升超过30个基点，这意味着英国央行面临更大的压力，即必须推出更大胆的计划，否则英镑兑美元的汇率将面临平价的风险。

Meanwhile, a UK Treasury spokesman said in a statement that they are aware that people are feeling the effects of price increases caused by global economic factors, which were triggered by Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. The price of much food and everyday goods in the UK continues to rise at the fastest rate in more than 40 years. Unions across the UK have been calling for pay rises to help workers cope with the pressure on family life caused by the rising cost of living Economic pressures have immediately affected British politics: the finalists who are running for the next Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister have proposed their own tax cuts to attract voters once they take office. 

11日，瑞银表示，虽然英国央行向债券市场注入流动性，使英国国债收益率从初始高点回落，但相对较小购债规模的相关进展看起来正在受损伤。

同时英国财政部发言人在一份声明中说，他们意识到人们正在感受到全球经济因素导致的价格上涨的影响，即原因是由俄罗斯非法入侵乌克兰引起的。英国许多食品和日常用品的价格继续以40多年来最快的速度上涨。

英国各地的工会一直在呼吁加薪以帮助工人应对生活成本上升给家庭生活带来的压力。经济压力立即影响了英国政治：竞选下届保守党领袖和首相的入围者都提出了自己的减税方案来在上任后吸引选民。

俄罗斯

RUSSIA

Sanctions were imposed on Russia from the US and EU during Russian-Ukraine war, which leads to depreciation of the Ruble. Speculators therefore choose to sell Russian assets and buy American Treasury bonds, which currently yields the highest since 2008. Meanwhile, foreign investors are reducing the investment which weaken Russia’s economic growth, which causes further depreciation of the Ruble. However, households in Russia do not have emergency mentality since they have few foreign exchange reserves. In order to mitigate devaluation, the Russian government could raise deposit rates, which protects individual savings and lower the risk of inflation through stabilizing the Ruble. Another possible solution is to use the Ruble for various trade settlement, which will raise various trade settlement, which will raise the international ruble requirements and ease the depreciation pressure on the ruble. It is disadvantageous that long-term decoupling from the international financial market would curb Russia's future economic development, however, since Russia has rich assets, the financial war would not change its financial operation rules.

美国和欧盟在俄乌战争期间对俄罗斯实施制裁，导致卢布贬值，因此投机者选择出售俄罗斯资产以购买目前收益率是2008年以来最高的美国国债。外国投资者与此同时也在减少投资，这更加削弱了俄罗斯的经济增长，导致卢布进一步贬值。然而因为外汇储备少，俄罗斯的家庭对此并没有危机意识。为了缓解贬值，俄罗斯政府可以提高存款利率以保护个人储蓄，并通过稳定卢布来降低通货膨胀的风险。另一个可能的解决方案是使用卢布进行各种贸易结算，这将提高各种贸易结算和国际上对卢布的要求，以达到缓解卢布的贬值压力。长期与国际金融市场脱钩会遏制俄罗斯未来的经济发展，然而由于俄罗斯拥有丰富的资产，金融战争不会改变其金融运行规则。

中国

CHINA

The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid rate, attracting foreign investment and reserve rates. The credit for the long-term development of the Chinese economy can be, partially, credited to the U.S. Treasury. The U.S. Treasury bonds increase the value of foreign exchange rates and avoid shrinkage. The Chinese real interest rates have risen, and they’re recovering faster than the economy of the United States. The U.S. has indicated an upward trend in “finished production inventories” as an economic momentum indicator. The upward impact of U.S. bond interest rates on China's domestic interest rates is limited. Inflation rates are expected to continuously rise. This is because the United States' output has been unable to cope with rising consumer demand. On the other hand, China's subsidies are mainly for enterprises. Likewise, the rise in oil and commodity prices has little impact on China's CPI. The rise in US Treasury bonds may trigger a correction in the foreign exchange market, which may cause a small effect on the monetary policy choice of China's central bank. The rising U.S. Treasury yields will lead to the phenomenon that China’s currency depreciating. The depreciation of the RMB will cause a decrease in imported goods, and the profits of enterprises that are mainly imported goods will decline. This will lead to an increase in the price of consumer goods in our country. In relation, it will cause a decline in the purchasing power of consumers.

中国经济一直在快速增长，吸引外国投资和储备利率。中国经济长期发展的功劳可以部分归功于美国财政部。美国国债增加了外汇汇率的价值，避免了缩水。中国的实际利率已经上升，而且复苏的速度比美国的经济还要快。美国已将“成品库存”作为经济动能指标显示出上升趋势。美债利率上行对中国国内利率的影响有限。预计通货膨胀率将持续上升。这是因为美国的产出已经无法应对不断增长的消费需求。另一方面，中国的补贴主要是针对企业的。同样，石油和大宗商品价格的上涨对中国的 CPI 影响不大。美国国债的上涨可能引发外汇市场的回调，这可能对中国央行的货币政策选择产生不小的影响。美国国债收益率的上升将导致中国货币贬值的现象。人民币贬值将导致进口商品减少，以进口商品为主的企业利润将下降。这将导致我国消费品价格上涨。相对而言，这将导致消费者购买力的下降。

加拿大

CANADA

The main country that we are discussing here, is Canada, known as the second-largest country in this planet, which shares the border with the United States. Today, we are going to focus on the economy of this amazing country. If we take a first look, we could see that Canada’s GDP growth rate is basically the same as the US. 

我们在这里讨论的主要国家是加拿大，它被称为这个星球上与美国接壤的第二大国家。今天，我们将专注于这个超级大国的经济。如果我们先稍微做一点研究，就可以看到加拿大的GDP增长率与美国基本相同。

To begin with, since Canada used to be colonized by the Great Britain and Canada gained diplomatic independence in 1926. As a result, Canada was significantly influenced by the British, especially in the aspect of economy. However, in the 20th century, the situation has changed. Because Canada is in the vicinity of the US, its industry is significantly influenced by the United States.

首先，由于加拿大曾经被英国殖民，加拿大于1926年才获得外交独立。因此，加拿大受到英国人的重大影响，特别是在经济方面。然而，在20世纪，情况发生了变化。由于加拿大位于美国附近，其行业受到美国的重大影响。

随着美国国债收益率的上升，它吸引了投资者，因为投资者喜欢美国国债收益率购买的债券的安全和固定回报。为了保持竞争力，其他债券和贷款的利率随着美国国债收益率的上升而上升。

As the Treasury yields rise, it attracts investors because investors like the safety and fixed returns of bonds bought by Treasury yields. To remain competitive, interest rates on other bonds and loans increase as Treasury yields rise. 

When the yields rise in the second market, the government has to pay a higher interest rate to attract buyers, which increases the demand for Treasuries, leading to the increase in value of the dollar.

Since the dollar has been appreciated and the major commodities are priced in dollars. The prices for corresponding commodity prices should fall. As a result, the appreciation of the US dollars benefit the economy of the whole country by increasing the value of the currency and the purchasing power. However, this would also have some impacts on industries like exports and imports, depending on the change of the dollar index.

当第二市场收益率上升时，政府必须支付更高的利率来吸引买家，这增加了对国债的需求，导致美元价值的增加。

由于美元升值，主要商品以美元定价。相应商品价格的价格应该会下降。因此，美元升值通过增加货币价值和购买力，使整个国家经济受益。然而，这也将对进出口等行业产生一些影响，这取决于美元指数的变化。

Credits

Credits

Marketing-Analyzers

Yixuan Chen

Jayden Han 

Canssandra Yang

Hao Jin

Shirley Wu

Tracy Zong

Writing-Editors

Chloe Pascoe

Genesis Li

Victoria Wang

Sky Zhou

Advertising-Designers

Melody Huang

Cliey Li

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